Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 30.229264 33.695630 37.678052 42.661010 48.832243 56.372015 66.529232
2025-06-01 25.206467 29.516186 34.918508 42.424750 53.019655 68.247903 93.686533
2025-06-08 21.834400 26.450863 32.608198 41.874828 56.454233 80.819521 132.279636
2025-06-15 19.473842 24.195440 30.798393 41.394891 59.704581 95.053129 192.634630
2025-06-22 17.758944 22.512903 29.421319 41.127302 63.134627 112.175701 300.061842
2025-06-29 16.252171 20.903291 27.854731 40.128244 64.808654 127.161623 471.463130
2025-07-06 15.670071 20.552409 28.135800 42.330742 73.917557 172.568997 1615.957843
2025-07-13 14.696886 19.490829 27.103651 41.857489 76.849156 203.989273 10617.815483
2025-07-20 13.994593 18.771783 26.534323 42.144983 81.895512 256.503158 NaN
2025-07-27 13.401206 18.163871 26.068977 42.533727 87.533385 333.250732 NaN
2025-08-03 12.811664 17.508331 25.437240 42.431267 91.771624 426.241134 NaN
2025-08-10 12.221595 16.805074 24.642400 41.813060 94.123855 526.882817 NaN
2025-08-17 11.773023 16.311710 24.196661 41.958098 99.600816 751.686371 NaN
2025-08-24 11.312386 15.766521 23.601581 41.646327 103.368004 1070.120080 NaN
2025-08-31 10.865093 15.215399 22.945360 41.075012 105.915609 1547.001648 NaN
2025-09-07 10.466485 14.723664 22.361318 40.592468 108.761378 2514.555376 NaN
2025-09-14 10.123186 14.307368 21.889357 40.325132 112.664608 5568.766774 NaN
2025-09-21 9.737548 13.796744 21.191770 39.354015 112.558867 11186.678975 NaN
2025-09-28 9.671739 13.842170 21.606949 41.483740 131.504884 NaN NaN
2025-10-05 9.377947 13.465636 21.130697 41.025047 134.902711 NaN NaN
2025-10-12 9.166280 13.225494 20.918047 41.302724 143.857724 NaN NaN
2025-10-19 8.975629 13.013212 20.746575 41.678495 154.451772 NaN NaN
2025-10-26 8.759915 12.744734 20.435920 41.579310 161.608276 NaN NaN